Is a return to the Suez Canal closer than ever?

After two years of rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, several major shipping lines are once again taking cautious steps toward the Suez Canal. Although this suggests that the situation is stabilising, the sector remains extremely cautious. Carriers such as CMA CGM and Maersk are allowing only a limited number of services – such as the Indamex and MECL – to sail via Suez again. These are test transits using medium‑sized vessels and without complex alliance setups, ensuring they can quickly revert if conditions change.

A full return would have significant impact: shorter transit times mean fewer vessels needed per service, which would create additional capacity on the market. This could lead to rate pressure, congestion at terminals, and renewed bottlenecks. Moreover, the longer route via the Cape has now become embedded in many supply chains. A premature normalisation could disturb the current balance.

For the shipping lines, stability outweighs speed. Safety, reliability, and customer confidence will remain decisive before any full scale‑up occurs. Until then, it will be limited to controlled experiments. Our advice is to build sufficient buffer into your planning, and feel free to contact us if you’d like to spar about the impact on your supply chain.